Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:13 pm at Phoenix); 13 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: DL 929 at 23:50 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 54%.

Nonstops today


DL 929 Delta Flight history →	PHX 23:50	ATL 06:29	28%	6%	0.4%	86%worse than usual
WN 2166 Southwest	PHX 18:25	ATL 01:05	54%	14%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 17:40 → SEA 20:46DL 2442	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 23:14 → ATL 07:04 +1DL 567	10h 24m	94%	66%
Delta Details →	PHX 20:18 → LAX 21:50DL 4077 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 23:59 → ATL 07:33 +1DL 320	8h 15m	95%	58%
Delta Details →	PHX 19:20 → SLC 21:59DL 1451	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	6h 54m	88%	55%
Frontier Details →	PHX 19:18 → LAS 20:40F9 4113	3h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 23:50 → ATL 06:59 +1F9 2428	8h 41m	89%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHX 20:18 → LAX 21:50DL 4077 · flown by SkyWest	50m Los Angeles	LAX 22:40 → ATL 06:10 +1DL 899	6h 52m	39%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON