Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:44 pm at Phoenix); 11 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 64%, against 41% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4507 at 19:25, 64%.

Nonstops today


WN 4507 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:25	BNA 00:50	64%	11%	0.2%	29%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 19:47 → SFO 21:50UA 2837	2h 09m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → BNA 06:37 +1UA 1815	8h 50m	78%	54%
American Details →	PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204	1h 52m Los Angeles	LAX 23:59 → BNA 06:08 +1AA 2149	7h 30m	81%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON