Today: AA 2603 at 20:21 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–60%.

Safest bet today AA 2603 PHX 20:21 → DFW 00:48 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest F9 3972 PHX 16:39 → DFW 21:18 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 50% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2603 American Flight history →	PHX 20:21	DFW 00:48	35%	13%	0.6%	61%
AA 521 American	PHX 19:31	DFW 23:58	38%	14%	0.6%	no record
AA 633 American Flight history →	PHX 19:00	DFW 23:25	39%	15%	0.7%	60%
AA 556 American Flight history →	PHX 18:43	DFW 23:16	40%	15%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
AA 853 American	PHX 16:26	DFW 21:09	46%	17%	0.7%	no record
AA 2210 American Flight history →	PHX 17:22	DFW 21:57	47%	19%	0.7%	65%worse than usual
AA 2113 American Flight history →	PHX 15:15	DFW 19:53	47%	18%	0.8%	54%
AA 1663 American Flight history →	PHX 16:15	DFW 20:53	47%	18%	0.8%	65%worse than usual
AA 3232 American Flight history →	PHX 17:15	DFW 21:50	48%	18%	0.7%	59%
AA 1933 American	PHX 15:58	DFW 20:27	48%	18%	0.8%	no record
F9 3972 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:39	DFW 21:18	60%	34%	2.2%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON