Today: DL 548 at 22:35 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–43%.

Safest bet today DL 548 PHX 22:35 → JFK 06:27 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 136 PHX 13:29 → JFK 21:17 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 548 Delta Flight history →	PHX 22:35	JFK 06:27	24%	7%	0.3%	89%worse than usual
AA 1587 American Flight history →	PHX 21:50	JFK 05:47	26%	11%	0.4%	87%worse than usual
AA 832 American Flight history →	PHX 15:51	JFK 23:58	33%	15%	0.4%	76%
AA 1224 American Flight history →	PHX 12:53	JFK 21:00	33%	10%	0.4%	53%
AA 475 American	PHX 13:05	JFK 21:10	35%	11%	0.4%	no record
B6 136 JetBlue Flight history →	PHX 13:29	JFK 21:17	43%	19%	0.7%	76%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 20:29 → JFK 00:01 +1DL 2692	7h 10m	87%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON