Today: AA 2059 at 23:42 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 45%.

Safest bet today AA 2059 PHX 23:42 → ORD 05:06 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2201 PHX 18:53 → ORD 00:31 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Against a calm day 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 22 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2059 American	PHX 23:42	ORD 05:06	31%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 3137 American Flight history →	PHX 19:09	ORD 00:51	45%	13%	0.2%	58%
AA 2201 American Flight history →	PHX 18:53	ORD 00:31	45%	15%	0.2%	90%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON