Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 39% on a calm day. Safest: WN 215 at 21:05, 42%.

Safest bet today WN 215 PHX 21:05 → SNA 22:25 · 42% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4510 PHX 17:50 → SNA 19:00 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 215 Southwest	PHX 21:05	SNA 22:25	42%	7%	0.4%	no record
AA 2637 American Flight history →	PHX 21:07	SNA 22:26	44%	9%	0.5%	82%worse than usual
AA 2463 American Flight history →	PHX 14:08	SNA 15:34	46%	17%	0.4%	78%worse than usual
WN 2369 Southwest	PHX 14:21	SNA 15:46	46%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 588 Southwest	PHX 20:46	SNA 22:11	46%	7%	0.4%	no record
AA 2659 American Flight history →	PHX 14:15	SNA 15:33	48%	16%	0.4%	73%worse than usual
AA 2471 American Flight history →	PHX 17:06	SNA 18:39	51%	14%	0.5%	84%worse than usual
WN 3831 Southwest	PHX 18:01	SNA 19:26	53%	9%	0.4%	no record
WN 2957 Southwest	PHX 19:01	SNA 20:26	53%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 2685 American Flight history →	PHX 17:21	SNA 18:40	54%	14%	0.5%	68%worse than usual
WN 2508 Southwest	PHX 15:10	SNA 16:20	54%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 312 Southwest	PHX 19:00	SNA 20:15	55%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 4510 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 17:50	SNA 19:00	58%	9%	0.4%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON