Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1353 at 16:55, 26%.

Safest bet today DL 1353 PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 3498 PIT 18:36 → ATL 20:26 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1353 Delta Flight history →	PIT 16:55	ATL 18:48	26%	8%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
DL 3122 Delta Flight history →	PIT 19:48	ATL 21:35	33%	6%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
DL 1568 Delta Flight history →	PIT 18:13	ATL 20:05	35%	8%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
WN 3498 Southwest	PIT 18:36	ATL 20:26	45%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON