Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:36 pm at Pittsburgh); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3505 Southwest	PIT 17:45	BWI 19:01	25%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 3033 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 18:05	BWI 19:15	33%	9%	0.5%	48%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PIT 18:02 → ORD 18:46UA 602	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675	6h 26m	91%	66%
Delta Details →	PIT 17:55 → DTW 19:08DL 5766 · flown by Republic	2h 37m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715	5h 23m	97%	63%
Delta Details →	PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48DL 1353	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	7h 44m	100%	36%
Delta Details →	PIT 18:13 → ATL 20:05DL 1568	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:36 → BWI 23:42DL 2670	5h 29m	88%	33%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PIT 18:16 → ORD 19:05UA 1494	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → BWI 23:17UA 220	5h 01m	75%	49%
United Details →	PIT 19:50 → ORD 20:29UA 6023 · flown by SkyWest	51m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675	4h 38m	67%	48%
American Details →	PIT 20:01 → CLT 21:50AA 5602 · flown by PSA	55m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 +1AA 1318	4h 13m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON