Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 28–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1868 PIT 19:42 → DFW 21:49 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 2664 PIT 15:18 → DFW 17:23 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 43% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1868 American Flight history →	PIT 19:42	DFW 21:49	28%	9%	0.8%	70%
AA 2307 American Flight history →	PIT 19:36	DFW 21:43	30%	9%	0.7%	66%
AA 2311 American Flight history →	PIT 15:11	DFW 17:19	30%	13%	0.9%	71%
AA 2664 American Flight history →	PIT 15:18	DFW 17:23	30%	14%	0.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON