Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:06 pm at Raleigh/Durham); 13 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Dulles, leaving 19:42, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RDU 19:42 → IAD 20:59UA 2642	2h 35m Dulles	IAD 23:34 → EWR 01:06 +1UA 3916	5h 24m	88%	64%
United Details →	RDU 19:45 → IAD 21:06UA 3520 · flown by Republic	1h 21m Dulles	IAD 22:27 → EWR 23:57UA 1997	4h 12m	76%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 19:59 → ATL 21:39DL 1097	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	4h 59m	53%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON