Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:07 pm at Raleigh/Durham); 9 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, YX 4424 at 20:02, with a 43% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


YX 4424 Republic	RDU 20:02	JFK 21:47	43%	23%	0.8%	no record
DL 5219 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 20:01	JFK 22:06	36%	18%	7.2%	64%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 19:59 → ATL 21:39DL 1097	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:51 +1DL 1632	4h 52m	53%	21%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON