Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:02 pm at San Diego); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3626 at 22:40, 31%.

Nonstops today


WN 3626 Southwest	SAN 22:40	BNA 04:38	31%	6%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302	3h 52m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → BNA 06:37 +1UA 1815	10h 10m	100%	71%
Southwest Details →	SAN 19:30 → SMF 21:10WN 4464	1h 55m Sacramento	SMF 23:05 → BNA 05:13 +1WN 3895	7h 43m	96%	66%
Alaska Details →	SAN 18:35 → SEA 21:35AS 1431	1h 40m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → BNA 05:40 +1AS 382	9h 05m	90%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 19:27 → SEA 22:14AS 1373	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → BNA 05:40 +1AS 382	8h 13m	33%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON