Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:56 pm at San Diego); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 62% (calm day: 40%). Best bet: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 19:50, 21% on time.

Nonstops today


WN 3632 Southwest	SAN 21:50	BWI 05:44	48%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 3486 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:40	BWI 05:35	49%	11%	0.4%	65%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302	3h 00m San Francisco	SFO 23:07 → BWI 07:37 +1UA 1646	10h 10m	98%	70%
United Details →	SAN 20:32 → LAX 21:45UA 5636 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 23:08 → BWI 07:17 +1UA 1605	7h 45m	76%	52%
Southwest Details →	SAN 18:20 → SJC 19:45WN 4185	1h 55m San Jose	SJC 21:40 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 621	8h 25m	84%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAN 19:41 → SFO 21:28UA 2278	1h 12m San Francisco	SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 +1UA 1340	8h 29m	48%	35%
Southwest Details →	SAN 19:50 → PHX 21:15WN 3526	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 22:30 → BWI 05:48 +1WN 3367	6h 58m	41%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON