Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 79%, against 39% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1370 at 16:15, 79%.

Safest bet today WN 1370 SAN 16:15 → DAL 21:25 · 79% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3560 SAN 17:55 → DAL 22:58 · 79% chance 15+ min late

Weather 79% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1370 Southwest	SAN 16:15	DAL 21:25	79%	34%	0.7%	no record
WN 3492 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 17:50	DAL 22:55	79%	38%	0.7%	36%worse than usual
WN 2026 Southwest	SAN 16:08	DAL 21:11	79%	34%	0.8%	no record
WN 3560 Southwest	SAN 17:55	DAL 22:58	79%	41%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON