tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:27 pm at San Diego); 4 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47% (calm day: 34%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:17, 61% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 427 United Flight history → SAN 22:30 EWR 06:53 35% 8% 0.5% 84%worse than usual
UA 1827 United Flight history → SAN 22:47 EWR 06:56 37% 8% 0.5% 88%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 9h 59m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117 3h 26m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698 10h 42m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302 2h 28m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → EWR 07:00 +1UA 1141 9h 33m 94% 69%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:35 → SEA 20:35AS 417 2h 05m Seattle SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314 10h 24m 91% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698 8h 24m 42% 34%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 18:35 → SEA 21:35AS 1431 1h 05m Seattle SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314 9h 24m 47% 33%
UnitedDetails → SAN 19:41 → SFO 21:28UA 2278 1h 07m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → EWR 07:00 +1UA 1141 8h 19m 40% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON