tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:05 am at San Diego); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31% (calm day: 21%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:15, 59% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2129 United Flight history → SAN 21:59 IAD 05:59 31% 5% 0.4% 89%worse than usual
UA 444 United Flight history → SAN 12:57 IAD 21:05 32% 8% 0.3% 87%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117 3h 53m San Francisco SFO 21:42 → IAD 06:03 +1UA 705 10h 54m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302 2h 58m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083 10h 03m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:44 → SFO 13:30UA 2428 3h 04m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 10h 11m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 20:32 → LAX 21:45UA 5636 · flown by SkyWest 1h 51m Los Angeles LAX 23:36 → IAD 07:39 +1UA 418 8h 07m 90% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:35 → SEA 20:35AS 417 2h 08m Seattle SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367 10h 04m 93% 68%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 8h 32m 95% 66%
DeltaDetails → SAN 12:59 → ATL 20:41DL 712 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 8h 42m 95% 64%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 2h 28m Detroit DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest 8h 36m 95% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 14:18 → ATL 22:00DL 540 53m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 23m 54% 37%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 12:09 → SEA 14:57AS 1368 59m Seattle SEA 15:56 → IAD 23:42AS 366 8h 33m 42% 24%
UnitedDetails → SAN 20:32 → LAX 21:45UA 5636 · flown by SkyWest 50m Los Angeles LAX 22:35 → IAD 06:46 +1UA 2372 7h 14m 18% 14%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON