Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: DL 4087 at 19:58, 47%.

Safest bet today DL 4087 SAN 19:58 → LAX 21:13 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OO 3993 SAN 14:57 → LAX 15:55 · 62% chance 15+ min late

Weather 52% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 19:58	LAX 21:13	47%	19%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
UA 2234 United	SAN 17:02	LAX 18:16	48%	26%	0.4%	no record
UA 5636 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 20:32	LAX 21:45	49%	17%	0.5%	91%worse than usual
DL 4002 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:00	LAX 16:04	50%	20%	0.5%	73%worse than usual
UA 2175 United	SAN 14:27	LAX 15:41	58%	17%	0.4%	no record
OO 3993 SkyWest	SAN 14:57	LAX 15:55	62%	18%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON