Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: AS 707 at 21:06, 46%.

Safest bet today AS 707 SAN 21:06 → MCO 05:18 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 4874 SAN 21:55 → MCO 05:55 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AS 707 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 21:06	MCO 05:18	46%	15%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
AS 708 Alaska	SAN 21:27	MCO 05:11	49%	15%	0.9%	no record
WN 2727 Southwest	SAN 13:46	MCO 21:29	51%	19%	0.4%	no record
WN 4874 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:55	MCO 05:55	52%	18%	0.5%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON