Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: AS 3218 at 12:30, 35%.

Safest bet today AS 3218 SAN 12:30 → OAK 14:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 3444 SAN 19:40 → OAK 21:15 · 61% chance 15+ min late

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 3218 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 12:30	OAK 14:10	35%	14%	0.4%	85%worse than usual
WN 3588 Southwest	SAN 22:40	OAK 00:25	37%	14%	0.2%	no record
WN 1776 Southwest	SAN 12:11	OAK 13:49	38%	9%	0.2%	no record
OO 3050 SkyWest	SAN 12:22	OAK 14:04	38%	14%	0.4%	no record
WN 4241 Southwest	SAN 15:16	OAK 16:54	48%	14%	0.2%	no record
WN 4240 Southwest	SAN 17:29	OAK 19:07	50%	17%	0.2%	no record
WN 1496 Southwest	SAN 21:29	OAK 23:07	54%	18%	0.3%	no record
WN 1204 Southwest	SAN 18:46	OAK 20:24	56%	17%	0.2%	no record
WN 3519 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:40	OAK 16:10	58%	14%	0.2%	54%worse than usual
WN 3518 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:00	OAK 17:30	58%	15%	0.2%	47%
WN 4866 Southwest	SAN 20:44	OAK 22:21	58%	19%	0.3%	no record
WN 1057 Southwest	SAN 18:35	OAK 20:10	60%	16%	0.2%	no record
WN 3444 Southwest	SAN 19:40	OAK 21:15	61%	20%	0.2%	no record
AS 2190 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:55	OAK 18:33	51%	14%	5.8%	49%
AS 2285 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:01	OAK 22:41	65%	21%	5.9%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON