Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:04 pm at Louisville); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 19:13, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SDF 19:13 → ORD 20:17AA 4668 · flown by Republic	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 22:59 → BNA 00:43 +1AA 1224	6h 30m	95%	60%
United Details →	SDF 19:55 → ORD 20:40UA 4563 · flown by GoJet	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 21:49 → BNA 23:36UA 314	4h 41m	84%	49%
Delta Details →	SDF 19:57 → ATL 21:33DL 2831	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	4h 18m	86%	36%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SDF 20:19 → CLT 21:55AA 1775	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 23:17 → BNA 23:48AA 526	4h 29m	66%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON