Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 32% on a calm day. Safest: AS 382 at 23:15, 35%.

Safest bet today AS 382 SEA 23:15 → BNA 05:40 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest DL 815 SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 382 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:15	BNA 05:40	35%	4%	0.4%	78%worse than usual
AS 416 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:31	BNA 23:59	46%	7%	0.4%	82%worse than usual
AS 450 Alaska	SEA 17:33	BNA 23:45	49%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 1130 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 22:45	BNA 05:00	52%	14%	0.2%	60%worse than usual
DL 815 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	BNA 23:54	58%	13%	0.2%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON