Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:36 pm at Seattle); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: AS 781 at 21:36, 33%.

Nonstops today


AS 781 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:36	BWI 05:41	33%	5%	0.4%	90%worse than usual
WN 3613 Southwest Flight history →	SEA 21:25	BWI 05:20	46%	13%	0.2%	50%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SEA 17:05 → DEN 20:45WN 3617	3h 05m Denver	DEN 23:50 → BWI 05:15 +1WN 1501	9h 10m	98%	68%
United Details →	SEA 17:20 → SFO 19:50UA 5592 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m San Francisco	SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 +1UA 1340	10h 50m	88%	68%
United Details →	SEA 18:48 → SFO 21:05UA 2241	2h 02m San Francisco	SFO 23:07 → BWI 07:37 +1UA 1646	9h 49m	82%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 18:48 → SFO 21:05UA 2241	1h 35m San Francisco	SFO 22:40 → BWI 07:10 +1UA 1340	9h 22m	71%	55%
United Details →	SEA 19:28 → SFO 22:03UA 737	1h 04m San Francisco	SFO 23:07 → BWI 07:37 +1UA 1646	9h 09m	61%	47%
United Details →	SEA 13:55 → ORD 20:21UA 2101	59m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675	7h 33m	45%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON