Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49%, against 32% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3677 at 19:57, 33%.

Safest bet today DL 3677 SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 1342 SEA 19:50 → GEG 20:56 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Weather 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3677 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:57	GEG 21:13	33%	6%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
DL 3832 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:59	GEG 19:15	39%	6%	0.2%	86%worse than usual
OO 3218 SkyWest	SEA 17:50	GEG 19:05	40%	6%	0.2%	no record
AS 1382 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:54	GEG 00:03	49%	8%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
AS 448 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:24	GEG 21:33	51%	9%	0.2%	83%worse than usual
AS 350 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:54	GEG 23:59	52%	8%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
AS 347 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:29	GEG 22:38	53%	9%	0.2%	79%worse than usual
DL 2354 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:45	GEG 23:55	54%	14%	0.2%	60%worse than usual
AS 1433 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:51	GEG 19:00	58%	8%	0.3%	73%worse than usual
AS 1342 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:50	GEG 20:56	58%	10%	0.2%	71%worse than usual
AS 2071 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 21:30	GEG 22:36	30%	11%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON