Today: AS 22 at 23:15 is the safest bet, 29% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–52%.

Safest bet today AS 22 SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest B6 264 SEA 22:19 → JFK 06:39 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 22 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:15	JFK 07:38	29%	6%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
DL 452 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:40	JFK 06:50	33%	10%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
B6 264 JetBlue Flight history →	SEA 22:19	JFK 06:39	52%	15%	0.7%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON