Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:31 am at South Florida); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: UA 1141 at 16:54 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–49%.

Safest bet today UA 1141 FLL 16:54 → SFO 20:12 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2035 MIA 17:15 → SFO 20:20 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 42% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1141 United	FLL 16:54	SFO 20:12	33%	6%	0.3%	no record
B6 277 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	SFO 23:51	35%	14%	0.7%	62%
AA 2426 American Flight history →	MIA 20:35	SFO 23:33	41%	11%	0.8%	56%
AA 2347 American	MIA 20:51	SFO 23:55	41%	12%	0.8%	no record
UA 2810 United Flight history →	MIA 16:45	SFO 20:10	45%	17%	0.3%	22%
AA 2799 American Flight history →	MIA 19:30	SFO 22:34	46%	18%	0.4%	33%
AA 590 American	MIA 16:42	SFO 19:52	49%	14%	0.3%	no record
AA 2035 American Flight history →	MIA 17:15	SFO 20:20	49%	15%	0.4%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 18:40 → SLC 21:38DL 745	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	76%	68%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	7h 54m	86%	64%
United Details →	FLL 18:29 → IAH 20:19UA 1338	1h 40m Houston	IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609	8h 36m	89%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON