tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:33 am at South Florida); 8 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Today: WN 1927 at 11:22 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–49%.

Safest bet today WN 1927 FLL 11:22 → MDW 12:52 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 863 FLL 21:05 → ORD 23:44 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time
Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.
WN 1927 Southwest FLL 11:22 MDW 12:52 21% 4% 0.2% no record
AA 2910 American Flight history → MIA 12:22 ORD 14:58 22% 6% 0.3% 73%
AA 2269 American Flight history → PBI 13:05 ORD 15:29 23% 7% 1.9% 78%
UA 1983 United Flight history → MIA 12:30 ORD 15:13 25% 6% 0.2% 82%
WN 3714 Southwest MIA 14:36 MDW 16:49 26% 8% 0.2% no record
WN 1869 Southwest Flight history → FLL 14:05 MDW 16:10 26% 6% 0.2% 80%
AA 835 American MIA 13:03 ORD 15:27 26% 7% 0.3% no record
UA 1755 United Flight history → FLL 12:26 ORD 14:55 27% 5% 0.2% 87%worse than usual
AA 2275 American Flight history → PBI 18:54 ORD 21:30 28% 8% 1.8% 69%
UA 651 United Flight history → FLL 19:37 ORD 22:20 29% 9% 0.2% 66%
WN 2930 Southwest Flight history → MIA 15:15 MDW 17:25 31% 9% 0.2% 54%
UA 312 United Flight history → PBI 16:08 ORD 18:42 31% 9% 1.5% 62%
AA 1851 American Flight history → FLL 12:15 ORD 14:46 31% 7% 0.2% 73%
WN 1928 Southwest FLL 18:07 MDW 20:23 33% 9% 0.2% no record
AA 1443 American Flight history → FLL 13:33 ORD 15:58 33% 8% 0.2% 89%worse than usual
AA 2323 American Flight history → MIA 21:50 ORD 00:26 33% 8% 1.2% 63%
AA 2634 American Flight history → MIA 22:13 ORD 00:36 33% 10% 1.2% 70%
WN 3501 Southwest FLL 18:20 MDW 20:25 35% 9% 0.1% no record
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:00 ORD 13:39 35% 9% 0.5% 71%
AA 2247 American Flight history → MIA 14:37 ORD 17:18 36% 8% 0.3% 67%
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history → FLL 12:10 ORD 14:40 36% 11% 0.6% 69%
AA 1881 American Flight history → MIA 20:54 ORD 23:30 37% 12% 1.0% 53%
AA 483 American Flight history → MIA 21:19 ORD 23:31 39% 9% 1.0% 79%worse than usual
UA 403 United Flight history → FLL 16:20 ORD 19:00 39% 10% 0.1% 52%
AA 2194 American Flight history → MIA 18:53 ORD 21:19 39% 10% 0.3% 62%
AA 3056 American Flight history → MIA 17:00 ORD 19:53 40% 9% 0.3% 60%
AA 3304 American Flight history → MIA 17:03 ORD 19:42 43% 10% 0.2% 49%
UA 2106 United Flight history → MIA 16:10 ORD 18:53 45% 9% 0.2% 59%
UA 2311 United Flight history → MIA 17:40 ORD 20:21 47% 11% 0.2% 34%
AA 2440 American Flight history → FLL 17:16 ORD 19:59 49% 11% 0.2% 32%
B6 863 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 21:05 ORD 23:44 49% 18% 0.9% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON