Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at South Florida); 13 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Today: AA 875 at 21:21 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–48%.

Safest bet today AA 875 MIA 21:21 → MCO 22:35 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1948 FLL 20:59 → MCO 22:09 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 875 American	MIA 21:21	MCO 22:35	35%	19%	1.0%	no record
WN 4165 Southwest	FLL 19:00	MCO 20:09	36%	15%	0.6%	no record
AA 1700 American Flight history →	MIA 20:50	MCO 22:08	36%	23%	1.0%	56%
AA 3174 American	MIA 22:50	MCO 00:04	36%	21%	1.3%	no record
AA 9786 American	MIA 15:21	MCO 16:39	42%	19%	0.7%	no record
AA 2495 American Flight history →	MIA 18:41	MCO 19:55	42%	25%	1.0%	70%worse than usual
AA 1813 American Flight history →	MIA 22:49	MCO 23:59	43%	24%	1.3%	50%
AA 1610 American	MIA 17:00	MCO 18:16	44%	23%	0.8%	no record
WN 1782 Southwest	MIA 18:51	MCO 20:02	45%	23%	0.5%	no record
AA 2147 American Flight history →	MIA 17:34	MCO 18:58	46%	29%	0.9%	61%
AA 2072 American Flight history →	MIA 16:29	MCO 17:52	46%	24%	0.8%	52%
AA 2803 American Flight history →	MIA 19:19	MCO 20:38	47%	25%	1.0%	60%
B6 1948 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	MCO 22:09	48%	23%	0.8%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON