tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:09 pm at San Francisco); 1 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2062 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SFO 13:56 BZN 17:11 69% 24% 3.8% 31%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 17:07 → SLC 20:00DL 1088 3h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 16m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → SFO 15:27 → MSP 21:00DL 2159 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 25m 84% 68%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 7h 31m 94% 61%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 14:25 → DEN 18:00WN 3641 3h 10m Denver DEN 21:10 → BZN 23:00WN 1505 7h 35m 96% 58%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 12:25 → SAN 14:00WN 3525 2h 00m San Diego SAN 16:00 → BZN 19:40WN 3415 6h 15m 91% 50%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 15:14 → SEA 17:16AS 630 3h 24m Seattle SEA 20:40 → BZN 23:19AS 458 7h 05m 99% 36%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:26 → SLC 16:15DL 902 1h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 4h 18m 64% 48%
DeltaDetails → SFO 19:24 → SLC 22:14DL 2652 51m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 3h 59m 52% 40%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 17:38 → SEA 19:40AS 1340 1h 00m Seattle SEA 20:40 → BZN 23:19AS 458 4h 41m 37% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON