tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:33 am at San Francisco); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 53% (calm day: 39%). Best bet: Southwest via Denver, leaving 14:25, 34% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1160 United SFO 21:42 CMH 05:34 32% 6% 0.3% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:37 → DTW 19:09DL 361 3h 41m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 9h 19m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078 1h 56m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356 7h 25m 94% 70%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:54 → IAD 21:22UA 755 1h 09m Dulles IAD 22:31 → CMH 00:02 +1UA 3646 · flown by Republic 8h 08m 81% 67%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 2h 55m Chicago ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492 8h 59m 89% 65%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 1h 46m Houston IAH 20:13 → CMH 23:59UA 2086 8h 44m 94% 64%
DeltaDetails → SFO 11:38 → ATL 19:27DL 693 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:03 → CMH 23:40DL 1459 9h 02m 96% 62%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 12:40 → PHX 14:45WN 4237 3h 40m Phoenix PHX 18:25 → CMH 01:10 +1WN 2133 9h 30m 100% 48%
AmericanDetails → SFO 12:18 → PHX 14:29AA 2548 1h 34m Phoenix PHX 16:03 → CMH 22:53AA 1156 7h 35m 90% 47%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SFO 14:19 → DTW 21:51DL 717 59m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 6h 37m 61% 51%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 7h 24m 54% 45%
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25UA 1791 50m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CMH 23:42UA 4414 · flown by GoJet 7h 27m 62% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON