Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:13 pm at San Francisco); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 33–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 234 SFO 21:30 → DTW 05:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest DL 335 SFO 22:55 → DTW 06:27 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 234 United Flight history →	SFO 21:30	DTW 05:20	33%	7%	0.2%	100%worse than usual
UA 1986 United	SFO 22:50	DTW 06:48	35%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 976 Delta Flight history →	SFO 23:56	DTW 07:27	38%	7%	0.2%	49%
DL 335 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:55	DTW 06:27	39%	8%	0.2%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON