Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:38 pm at San Francisco); 9 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 23–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 698 SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 366 SFO 13:45 → EWR 22:26 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 698 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EWR 05:51	23%	5%	0.2%	84%
UA 2248 United Flight history →	SFO 15:00	EWR 23:50	26%	8%	0.5%	67%
UA 1141 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	EWR 07:00	28%	4%	0.2%	83%worse than usual
UA 2626 United Flight history →	SFO 16:20	EWR 01:10	29%	8%	0.4%	70%
UA 366 United Flight history →	SFO 13:45	EWR 22:26	31%	11%	0.4%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 19:24 → SLC 22:14DL 2652	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	7h 36m	76%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON