Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:09 pm at San Francisco); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 31–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1230 SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest B6 278 SFO 22:40 → FLL 07:22 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1230 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	FLL 05:59	31%	9%	0.3%	75%
UA 2469 United	SFO 21:19	FLL 05:51	33%	9%	0.3%	no record
B6 278 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 22:40	FLL 07:22	39%	14%	0.2%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON