Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:13 pm at San Francisco); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OO 5822 SkyWest	SFO 20:12	GEG 22:40	33%	13%	0.3%	no record
UA 5693 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:45	GEG 23:04	36%	11%	0.3%	70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SFO 17:38 → SEA 19:40AS 1340	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 21:30 → GEG 22:36AS 2071 · flown by Horizon	4h 58m	91%	63%
Alaska Details →	SFO 18:46 → PDX 20:31AS 525	1h 19m Portland	PDX 21:50 → GEG 22:59AS 1356	4h 13m	84%	63%
Delta Details →	SFO 17:29 → SEA 19:44DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 22:45 → GEG 23:55DL 2354	6h 26m	98%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SFO 18:43 → LAX 20:10DL 1629	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 21:25 → GEG 00:02 +1DL 3576 · flown by SkyWest	5h 19m	74%	47%
Delta Details →	SFO 19:24 → SLC 22:14DL 2652	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → GEG 23:55DL 1466	4h 31m	54%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON