Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:17 am at San Francisco); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 18–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 705 SFO 21:42 → IAD 06:03 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 1791 SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 705 United Flight history →	SFO 21:42	IAD 06:03	18%	4%	0.2%	100%worse than usual
UA 1083 United Flight history →	SFO 23:05	IAD 07:30	19%	5%	0.8%	80%
UA 2111 United Flight history →	SFO 23:20	IAD 07:48	20%	5%	0.8%	87%
UA 357 United Flight history →	SFO 21:30	IAD 05:53	21%	5%	0.2%	74%
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	IAD 06:55	23%	6%	0.9%	67%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	24%	7%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
UA 755 United Flight history →	SFO 12:54	IAD 21:22	24%	6%	0.2%	78%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	26%	7%	0.2%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 12:42 → MSP 18:19DL 2078	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	7h 38m	87%	61%
Delta Details →	SFO 13:20 → SLC 16:14DL 849	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	7h 09m	79%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON