Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:58 am at San Francisco); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Today: AA 276 at 21:20 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–45%.

Safest bet today AA 276 SFO 21:20 → JFK 06:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 42 SFO 13:38 → JFK 22:26 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 276 American Flight history →	SFO 21:20	JFK 06:00	15%	6%	0.5%	87%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:30	JFK 06:57	20%	6%	0.4%	78%
DL 319 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:35	JFK 06:49	21%	6%	0.4%	89%
AS 40 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 22:18	JFK 06:31	22%	5%	0.5%	88%
B6 16 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 20:40	JFK 05:22	24%	9%	0.5%	74%
DL 396 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:00	JFK 00:40	28%	11%	0.4%	62%
B6 816 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 23:50	JFK 08:33	33%	9%	0.9%	79%worse than usual
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:05	JFK 00:17	35%	11%	0.4%	77%worse than usual
AA 148 American Flight history →	SFO 14:45	JFK 23:42	35%	14%	0.6%	73%
AA 166 American Flight history →	SFO 12:10	JFK 21:00	35%	11%	0.7%	74%
DL 691 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:00	JFK 21:44	37%	10%	0.4%	49%
B6 416 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 14:35	JFK 23:20	37%	11%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
DL 631 Delta	SFO 13:19	JFK 21:32	39%	11%	0.4%	no record
B6 216 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 13:15	JFK 22:02	40%	12%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
AS 42 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:38	JFK 22:26	45%	11%	0.6%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON