Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:35 pm at San Francisco); 51 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Today: UA 2179 at 22:37 is the safest bet, 40% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42–75%.

Safest bet today UA 2179 SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest WN 3659 SFO 20:27 → LAX 21:24 · 75% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 46% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 51 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2179 United Flight history →	SFO 22:37	LAX 00:19	40%	15%	0.2%	72%worse than usual
AS 3037 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 21:43	LAX 23:21	42%	9%	0.3%	27%
UA 298 United Flight history →	SFO 19:45	LAX 21:29	44%	14%	0.2%	69%worse than usual
DL 1559 Delta Flight history →	SFO 20:05	LAX 21:40	46%	11%	0.6%	67%worse than usual
DL 2197 Delta Flight history →	SFO 20:42	LAX 22:08	47%	14%	0.6%	71%worse than usual
UA 2409 United Flight history →	SFO 19:46	LAX 21:17	52%	14%	0.2%	68%worse than usual
UA 1079 United	SFO 21:47	LAX 23:21	52%	15%	0.2%	no record
AA 2567 American Flight history →	SFO 20:11	LAX 21:49	55%	19%	0.4%	60%worse than usual
AS 751 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 19:46	LAX 21:06	55%	10%	0.4%	27%
WN 3648 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 21:35	LAX 23:25	55%	14%	0.2%	21%
AA 3247 American Flight history →	SFO 20:08	LAX 21:47	56%	18%	0.4%	88%worse than usual
AS 1412 Alaska	SFO 20:18	LAX 21:06	56%	11%	0.4%	no record
WN 962 Southwest	SFO 21:27	LAX 22:55	67%	15%	0.2%	no record
WN 3659 Southwest	SFO 20:27	LAX 21:24	75%	19%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON