Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:16 pm at San Francisco); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via LAX, leaving 19:45, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 37% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 1267 United Flight history →	SFO 23:59	MCO 08:34	30%	7%	0.5%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SFO 19:45 → LAX 21:29UA 298	1h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 23:04 → MCO 07:03 +1UA 1730	8h 18m	100%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SFO 19:24 → SLC 22:14DL 2652	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	7h 36m	74%	51%
Delta Details →	SFO 20:05 → LAX 21:40DL 1559	47m Los Angeles	LAX 22:27 → MCO 06:25 +1DL 547	7h 20m	37%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON