Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:18 am at San Francisco); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: UA 1769 at 22:54 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–31%.

Safest bet today UA 1769 SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 1458 SFO 12:24 → MIA 21:10 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1769 United Flight history →	SFO 22:54	MIA 07:39	21%	5%	0.7%	86%
AA 1842 American	SFO 22:09	MIA 06:50	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1545 American Flight history →	SFO 21:49	MIA 06:34	26%	6%	0.6%	56%
AA 773 American	SFO 11:41	MIA 20:32	29%	8%	0.4%	no record
AA 2565 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	MIA 20:05	31%	8%	0.4%	58%
UA 1458 United	SFO 12:24	MIA 21:10	31%	7%	0.4%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SFO 19:17 → PHX 21:33AA 1914	1h 32m Phoenix	PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654	8h 11m	81%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON