Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:35 am at San Francisco); 12 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Today: UA 368 at 23:30 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–43%.

Safest bet today UA 368 SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 1922 SFO 13:59 → ORD 20:19 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 368 United Flight history →	SFO 23:30	ORD 05:57	28%	5%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
AA 2817 American	SFO 17:18	ORD 23:38	29%	9%	0.2%	no record
UA 2278 United Flight history →	SFO 22:38	ORD 05:01	30%	6%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
AA 2554 American Flight history →	SFO 23:07	ORD 05:20	33%	6%	0.9%	73%
AA 2113 American Flight history →	SFO 23:01	ORD 05:03	33%	6%	0.9%	60%
AA 2537 American Flight history →	SFO 16:20	ORD 23:00	35%	9%	0.1%	69%
UA 1482 United Flight history →	SFO 16:21	ORD 22:59	35%	8%	0.2%	81%worse than usual
AA 2642 American	SFO 15:11	ORD 21:39	35%	10%	0.2%	no record
UA 1147 United	SFO 15:11	ORD 21:34	37%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 1887 United	SFO 16:39	ORD 22:48	39%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 2358 American	SFO 13:44	ORD 20:22	39%	9%	0.2%	no record
UA 1958 United Flight history →	SFO 18:49	ORD 00:59	39%	7%	0.2%	92%worse than usual
AA 2550 American Flight history →	SFO 14:36	ORD 21:27	40%	11%	0.2%	37%
UA 2317 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	ORD 18:35	43%	7%	0.2%	50%
UA 1922 United	SFO 13:59	ORD 20:19	43%	9%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON