Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:08 pm at San Francisco)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42% (calm day: 31%). Best bet: American via Charlotte, leaving 13:20, 39% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (West Palm Beach is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SFO 13:20 → CLT 21:44AA 2562	1h 12m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764	8h 31m	80%	39%
Delta Details →	SFO 14:00 → ATL 21:49DL 531	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	7h 51m	78%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON