Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:28 pm at San Francisco); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: UA 2384 at 22:52 is the safest bet, 32% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–51%.

Safest bet today UA 2384 SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest UA 1227 SFO 19:29 → PDX 20:43 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2384 United Flight history →	SFO 22:52	PDX 00:50	32%	12%	0.1%	75%
UA 2413 United Flight history →	SFO 20:50	PDX 22:48	37%	16%	0.1%	56%
UA 2262 United Flight history →	SFO 18:56	PDX 20:54	40%	12%	0.1%	82%worse than usual
AS 525 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 18:46	PDX 20:31	42%	9%	0.2%	83%worse than usual
UA 1227 United	SFO 19:29	PDX 20:43	51%	15%	0.1%	no record
AS 2023 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 22:08	PDX 23:52	46%	31%	6.9%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON