Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:09 pm at San Francisco); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2045 at 21:10, 33%.

Safest bet today AA 2045 SFO 21:10 → PHL 05:43 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest UA 2619 SFO 16:42 → PHL 01:23 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2045 American Flight history →	SFO 21:10	PHL 05:43	33%	9%	0.5%	77%
AA 3166 American Flight history →	SFO 21:44	PHL 06:18	33%	8%	0.5%	89%worse than usual
UA 2854 United Flight history →	SFO 23:20	PHL 07:50	36%	5%	0.2%	83%worse than usual
UA 2619 United Flight history →	SFO 16:42	PHL 01:23	36%	11%	0.3%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 19:24 → SLC 22:14DL 2652	1h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:59 → PHL 06:15 +1DL 2075	7h 51m	78%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON