Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:39 pm at San Francisco); 11 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Today: UA 1653 at 21:17 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–56%.

Safest bet today UA 1653 SFO 21:17 → PHX 23:32 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3818 SFO 19:00 → PHX 21:03 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1653 United	SFO 21:17	PHX 23:32	31%	10%	0.2%	no record
UA 2347 United Flight history →	SFO 19:25	PHX 21:39	36%	9%	0.2%	83%worse than usual
UA 1375 United Flight history →	SFO 19:16	PHX 21:31	37%	9%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
AA 1321 American Flight history →	SFO 15:52	PHX 18:04	38%	14%	0.2%	50%
UA 574 United Flight history →	SFO 16:25	PHX 18:39	38%	9%	0.2%	73%worse than usual
AA 1837 American	SFO 15:56	PHX 18:02	38%	14%	0.2%	no record
AA 1914 American Flight history →	SFO 19:18	PHX 21:33	38%	14%	0.2%	75%worse than usual
AA 2544 American Flight history →	SFO 18:55	PHX 21:00	42%	13%	0.2%	57%
WN 4230 Southwest	SFO 18:40	PHX 20:55	56%	13%	0.1%	no record
WN 3818 Southwest	SFO 19:00	PHX 21:03	56%	14%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON