Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:11 pm at San Francisco); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: UA 5753 at 20:54 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32–49%.

Safest bet today UA 5753 SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest F9 3394 SFO 17:11 → SLC 20:06 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 5753 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:54	SLC 23:59	31%	15%	0.2%	66%
UA 5590 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 19:01	SLC 22:13	32%	14%	0.2%	81%worse than usual
DL 1088 Delta Flight history →	SFO 17:07	SLC 20:00	35%	13%	0.2%	71%
UA 543 United Flight history →	SFO 16:11	SLC 19:11	40%	11%	0.2%	52%
DL 670 Delta	SFO 19:24	SLC 22:16	42%	13%	0.2%	no record
DL 2652 Delta Flight history →	SFO 19:24	SLC 22:14	44%	14%	0.2%	69%worse than usual
F9 3394 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 17:11	SLC 20:06	49%	20%	1.2%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON