Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:04 pm at San Francisco); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 37–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 5796 SFO 18:28 → SMF 19:36 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 1862 SFO 20:56 → SMF 21:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 5796 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:28	SMF 19:36	37%	12%	0.3%	78%worse than usual
UA 1302 United Flight history →	SFO 22:54	SMF 23:59	38%	11%	0.2%	59%
UA 1862 United	SFO 20:56	SMF 21:59	38%	11%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON