Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:21 am at San Francisco); 9 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Today: AS 3465 at 20:48 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–52%.

Safest bet today AS 3465 SFO 20:48 → SNA 22:28 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest F9 3582 SFO 14:19 → SNA 16:01 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 3465 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:48	SNA 22:28	25%	4%	0.8%	79%
AS 3464 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:52	SNA 22:30	26%	4%	0.8%	75%
UA 571 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	SNA 13:45	31%	12%	0.3%	70%
UA 2441 United Flight history →	SFO 12:31	SNA 14:20	31%	12%	0.3%	89%worse than usual
UA 589 United Flight history →	SFO 19:10	SNA 20:55	31%	8%	0.3%	89%worse than usual
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:39	SNA 17:19	33%	8%	0.6%	71%
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:48	SNA 17:26	35%	8%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
OO 3210 SkyWest	SFO 11:34	SNA 13:14	38%	9%	0.7%	no record
AS 3237 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:30	SNA 14:09	38%	10%	0.6%	12%
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:39	SNA 15:31	39%	9%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
UA 5650 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:30	SNA 18:22	40%	8%	0.6%	72%worse than usual
OO 5597 SkyWest	SFO 16:58	SNA 18:54	40%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 269 Alaska	SFO 17:04	SNA 18:29	43%	9%	0.6%	no record
F9 3582 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 14:19	SNA 16:01	52%	16%	1.2%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON