tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:22 am at San Jose)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: DL 654 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17%.

Safest bet today DL 654 SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 809 SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time
Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 654 Delta Flight history → SJC 06:35 ATL 14:15 14% 2% 0.4% 94%
DL 2904 Delta Flight history → SJC 22:51 ATL 06:33 17% 6% 2.1% 100%worse than usual
DL 2136 Delta Flight history → SJC 22:00 ATL 05:37 17% 6% 1.9% 90%
DL 809 Delta Flight history → SJC 12:40 ATL 20:24 26% 4% 0.4% 91%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:26DL 1654 1h 24m Los Angeles LAX 09:50 → ATL 16:50DL 327 6h 50m 95% 67%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 54m Salt Lake City SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 6h 37m 88% 63%
UnitedDetails → SJC 08:45 → DEN 12:24UA 586 1h 02m Denver DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671 6h 45m 84% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON