tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:08 pm at San Jose); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31% (calm day: 20%). Best bet: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:10, 72% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 7h 16m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 18:45 → BNA 23:05DL 2317 7h 25m 93% 72%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 17:30 → SAN 18:55WN 3702 3h 45m San Diego SAN 22:40 → BNA 04:38 +1WN 3626 9h 08m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 8h 35m 97% 63%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 19:35 → LAX 21:00WN 3680 2h 05m Los Angeles LAX 23:05 → BNA 05:08 +1WN 2463 7h 33m 92% 60%
UnitedDetails → SJC 14:32 → DEN 18:11UA 719 2h 21m Denver DEN 20:32 → BNA 00:16 +1UA 1287 7h 44m 93% 58%
DeltaDetails → SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 2h 07m Los Angeles LAX 18:31 → BNA 00:33 +1DL 858 7h 34m 92% 58%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 15:35 → PHX 17:30WN 3266 1h 55m Phoenix PHX 19:25 → BNA 00:50 +1WN 4507 7h 15m 98% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SJC 13:10 → IAH 19:05UA 2078 59m Houston IAH 20:04 → BNA 22:25UA 750 7h 15m 63% 42%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 20:00 → SAN 21:25WN 4513 1h 15m San Diego SAN 22:40 → BNA 04:38 +1WN 3626 6h 38m 54% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON