Today: WN 3797 at 10:43 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet today WN 3797 SJC 10:43 → BUR 12:04 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3571 SJC 20:20 → BUR 21:35 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3797 Southwest	SJC 10:43	BUR 12:04	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3661 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 11:10	BUR 12:20	16%	4%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 1194 Southwest	SJC 11:58	BUR 13:19	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1284 Southwest	SJC 17:37	BUR 18:59	23%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 1670 Southwest	SJC 20:51	BUR 22:13	25%	13%	0.5%	no record
WN 3471 Southwest	SJC 14:17	BUR 15:38	27%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 2967 Southwest	SJC 16:12	BUR 17:34	30%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 3663 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 18:55	BUR 20:05	31%	15%	0.5%	84%worse than usual
WN 4931 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 13:40	BUR 14:45	31%	9%	0.6%	67%
WN 3571 Southwest	SJC 20:20	BUR 21:35	32%	14%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON