Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:43 am at San Jose)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 11:50, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 621 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:40	BWI 05:45	32%	6%	0.6%	74%
WN 3801 Southwest	SJC 21:40	BWI 05:46	33%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SJC 16:48 → SEA 18:55AS 521	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 +1AS 781	9h 53m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	SJC 11:50 → MDW 17:55WN 4357	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 21:20 → BWI 00:19 +1WN 1588	9h 29m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	SJC 16:05 → SEA 18:15WN 4982	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 21:25 → BWI 05:20 +1WN 3613	10h 15m	100%	67%
Southwest Details →	SJC 10:15 → BNA 16:30WN 3657	1h 55m Nashville	BNA 18:25 → BWI 21:15WN 467	8h 00m	100%	65%
Southwest Details →	SJC 17:30 → SAN 18:55WN 3702	2h 45m San Diego	SAN 21:40 → BWI 05:35 +1WN 3486	9h 05m	95%	64%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	8h 59m	97%	61%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	7h 03m	80%	59%
Southwest Details →	SJC 09:05 → DEN 12:30WN 3666	2h 20m Denver	DEN 14:50 → BWI 20:15WN 1045	8h 10m	100%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SJC 19:35 → LAX 21:00WN 3680	50m Los Angeles	LAX 21:50 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 2385	7h 10m	55%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON